Domino Draw Probability Calculator (Boneyard Odds)
Calculate the chance of drawing a specific domino from the boneyard.
Works with double-6, double-9, and double-12 sets at any point in play.
The boneyard math. A double-6 set has 28 tiles. Double-9 has 55. Double-12 has 91. After tiles are dealt and played, what is left in the boneyard depends on how many tiles have been drawn out of it.
Probability of drawing a specific tile next. From the player’s perspective, every tile you have not seen is equally likely to be the next one drawn from the boneyard. If 18 tiles are still unseen (in opponents’ hands plus the boneyard combined), the chance the next draw is a specific tile (say the 5-3) equals 1 in 18, about 5.6%. The exact size of the boneyard does not change that probability — only the total unseen count matters.
Doubles in each set. Double-6 has 7 doubles (0-0 through 6-6). Double-9 has 10. Double-12 has 13. Probability of drawing any double next = (unseen doubles) / (total unseen tiles).
Pip frequency. In a double-N set, every pip value 0 through N appears in exactly N+1 tiles. So in a double-6 set, the pip “5” shows up on 7 tiles: 5-0, 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6. Tracking which 5s have been played narrows the odds for tiles you might still need.
Why this matters in real play. Counting tiles is what separates strong All Fives players from casual ones. Knowing your last two opponents are likely holding the remaining double-6 and double-5 changes which tiles you should hold versus dump.
Practical note. This calculator assumes a uniform random distribution of unseen tiles. In casual play, that is accurate. In tournament play with rules about reshuffling between rounds, slight biases can creep in but rarely change the math meaningfully.
To put these odds to use in a real game, dominoznif.com runs All Fives in the browser with all the standard rule variants.