Poker Outs to Odds Calculator

An out is any unseen card that improves your hand to a winner. You count them by working out what beats your current hand and which cards you have left in the deck that get you there.

The rule of 2 and 4. A poker shorthand that gets you within 1% of the real number, fast enough to use in real time:

• Multiply outs by 2 to get your chance of hitting on the next single card.
• Multiply outs by 4 to get your chance of hitting by the river (turn AND river still to come).

So 9 outs to a flush after the flop is roughly 36% to hit by the river. The actual number is 35.0%. Close enough.

The exact math. After the flop, 47 cards are unseen (52 minus your 2 hole cards minus the 3 flop cards). For one card:

• P(hit on turn) = outs / 47

For two cards:

• P(miss on turn) = (47 - outs) / 47
• P(miss on river given missed turn) = (46 - outs) / 46
• P(hit by river) = 1 - (P(miss turn) × P(miss river))

After the turn, only 46 cards are unseen for the river card.

Common out counts.

• 4 outs (gutshot straight): 8.7% turn, 17% by river
• 8 outs (open-ended straight): 17% turn, 32% by river
• 9 outs (flush draw): 19% turn, 35% by river
• 12 outs (open-ended + flush): 26% turn, 45% by river
• 15 outs (straight + flush draw, both ends): 32% turn, 54% by river

The trap with overcards. New players count overcards as 6 outs (3 for each card pair) and call any bet. The actual win rate when you hit one of your overcards is much lower because the opponent often has top pair or trips and you are still beat. Discount overcard outs by 30 to 50%.

The trap with paired board outs. If the board pairs and you needed that suit, your flush draw shrinks. A pair on board takes one of your flush outs out of play. Discount accordingly.

Pot odds versus odds of hitting. This calculator gives the chance of hitting. To decide whether the call is profitable, compare to pot odds — the price you pay versus the size of the pot. A 3:1 pot offers 25% odds, so any draw with 25% or better is a call.