Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculate your trading system expectancy — the average amount you expect to win or lose per trade.
The core metric for system viability.
Trading Expectancy
Expectancy tells you how much you can expect to make (or lose) on every dollar risked, on average, over a large sample of trades.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss)
Expectancy per $1 risked:
E = (Win Rate × Avg Win / Avg Loss) − (Loss Rate)
Interpretation:
- Positive expectancy — system makes money over time
- Zero — breakeven system
- Negative — losing system, no amount of position sizing fixes it
Examples:
- Win rate 40%, avg win $500, avg loss $200: E = (0.40 × $500) − (0.60 × $200) = $80 per trade
- Win rate 60%, avg win $150, avg loss $200: E = (0.60 × $150) − (0.40 × $200) = $10 per trade
Key considerations:
- You need at least 30–50 trades for expectancy to be statistically meaningful
- Always calculate expectancy AFTER commissions and slippage
- A small positive expectancy can still be profitable with high trade frequency