Blog Traffic Estimator
Project blog traffic growth at 3, 6, and 12 months from post count and monthly views per post.
Returns total visitors and cumulative traffic milestones.
Blog traffic estimation works backwards from the only two numbers that actually drive it: how many posts you have, and how much traffic an average post pulls in a month.
Core formula:
- Current monthly views = Number of posts × Average monthly views per post
- Views in N months = Current monthly views × (1 + Monthly growth rate)^N
That is all there is to it. The projection compounds a single growth rate forward, which is a planning tool rather than a forecast, for reasons covered further down.
Where the average comes from
The average views per post is the number people get wrong, because blog traffic is not distributed evenly. It is closer to a power law: a handful of posts carry most of the traffic while the majority sit near zero.
A blog with 50 posts and 10,000 monthly views does not have 50 posts pulling 200 each. It usually has three posts pulling 2,500 and forty-odd pulling under 50. So take your real total and divide, rather than estimating what a typical post does, or you will anchor on the winners and project something far too optimistic.
Realistic growth rates
| Monthly growth | What that looks like in practice |
|---|---|
| 0–3% | Publishing has stopped; this is decay held up by existing rankings |
| 5% | Occasional posting, no deliberate SEO work |
| 10% | Consistent publishing on a schedule |
| 15% | Consistent publishing plus keyword research and internal linking |
| 20%+ | Rarely sustained beyond a few months without paid promotion or unusual luck |
Worked example
A blog with 50 posts averaging 200 monthly views each, growing 10% a month:
| Point | Monthly views |
|---|---|
| Now | 10,000 |
| 3 months | 13,310 |
| 6 months | 17,716 |
| 12 months | 31,384 |
That is a 3.14× increase over the year. Note how little happens in the first quarter: 10% monthly is a genuinely healthy rate and it still only adds 3,310 views in three months. Compounding is unimpressive early and dramatic late, which is precisely why most blogs are abandoned in month four.
The part the maths cannot capture
New posts take three to six months to rank at all, so growth you see this month came from work done last quarter. The corollary is uncomfortable: if you stop publishing today, the numbers keep rising for a while and then flatten, and by the time the flattening shows up you are two months behind fixing it.
Traffic also arrives in steps rather than a curve, as individual posts break into the top ten for a term. A smooth percentage is a convenient fiction that averages those steps out.
Turning traffic into money
This page deliberately stops at traffic. If you want the revenue side, the RPM and AdSense calculators linked below handle it, and they need a figure this page cannot know: what your particular audience is worth to advertisers. That varies by more than ten to one across niches, so multiplying pageviews by a benchmark RPM produces a number with no useful precision.
How we build and check this calculator
This calculator runs entirely in your browser, so the numbers you enter stay on your device. The math behind it is written by hand and tested against worked examples and standard references before the page goes live.
SuperGlobalCalculator is independently built and maintained. See how we build and verify our calculators.